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DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/30 10:47
Corn, Soybean Futures Lower at Midday; Wheat Flat-Higher
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 7
to 8 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 7 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 7
to 8 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 7 cents higher. The U.S. stock
market is firmer at midday with the S&P 40 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index
is 2 points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is
mixed with crude off .50 and natural gas up .14. Livestock trade is mixed with
hogs leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold flat.
CORN:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower in quiet midday trade as we head toward
the Stocks and Acres report at 11 a.m. CDT with action holding just above the
fresh lows from Monday with deeply oversold conditions still in place. On the
report, trade is looking for corn acres at 94.9 million, down 400,000 from
March, with stocks at 5.392 billion bushels (bb). Ethanol margins should hold
the range heading into the holiday travel weekend with unleaded holding the
early week gains. Weather is warmer than normal to start the week, but overall
concerns remain limited. Weekly crop progress showing good to excellent 1 point
lower to 67% good to excellent and 8% poor to very poor with 9% silking versus
6% on average. Basis action looks to remain flat in the short term. On the
September chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.26 3/4 is resistance with the
fresh low at $4.07 as support.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 7 to 8 cents lower at midday with action holding just
above the lows and being oversold heading toward the report with broad product
weakness limiting upside. Meal is 2.50 to 3.50 lower and oil is 250 to 260
points lower. On the report, trade is looking for acres at 85.4 million, up
about 700,000 from March, with stocks at 1.051 bb. Basis will need further
crush margin recovery to hold recent gains as July goes into delivery. Weather
should add some short-term heat stress with good to excellent off 1 point to
66% and 8% poor to very poor with 19% blooming versus. 1% on average and 4%
setting pods versus 2% on average. On the September contract, chart resistance
is the 20-day moving average at $11.29 1/2 with the recent low at $11.07 1/2 as
support.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are flat to 7 cents higher at midday with Minneapolis leading
overnight as we work to find short-covering at the low end of the range as
harvest pressure persists along with negative spillover from row crops. On the
report all wheat acres are expected at 43.8 million, unchanged from March, with
stocks at 935 million bushels (mb). Harvest should continue to roll forth after
recent storms with 48% harvested versus 39% on average with spring wheat areas
likely to stay in good shape in the short-term with conditions up 4 points to
59% good to excellent with 7% poor to very poor. Matif wheat is weaker as it
sees spillover pressure from U.S. action. The daily export wire showed 100,000
metric tons of spring wheat sold to Nigeria. On the KC September chart,
resistance is the 20-day moving average at $6.38 with the fresh low at $6.10
3/4 as support.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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