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DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/25 10:31
Corn Futures Flat at Midday Wednesday; Soybeans Higher; Wheat Mixed
Corn futures are flat at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents
higher; wheat futures are 2 cents lower to 4 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are flat at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents
higher; wheat futures are 2 cents lower to 4 cents higher. The U.S. stock
market is lower at midday with the S&P 15 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index
has been mixed; it is 5 points higher at midday. The interest rate products are
firmer. Energy trade remains volatile with crude down close to $4 at midday,
and we have been down around $6 a barrel during the session. Livestock trade is
firmer. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 160 and silver up 3.50.
CORN:
Corn futures are flat at midday after trading around 4 cents lower
overnight. Weaker energy prices were noted for the lower trade overnight and
some downside momentum. Ethanol margins are holding the recent range with some
talk of greater E15 possibilities to be announced soon. Moisture in the
extended forecasts has limited upside in the futures this week. Weekly export
sales are expected to be in the 500,000 to 750,000 metric ton (mt) range. Basis
likely continues to hold in the recent range. New-crop price ratios continue to
edge swing acres toward soybeans unless inputs come down for corn, or the
market firms higher to try and buy more corn acres. The market expectations for
the Prospective Plantings report are around 94 million acres versus 98.8
million last year. On the May chart, support is the 20-day moving average at
$4.56, which is also the area of our three-day low, with chart resistance at
the recent high up at $4.76.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with product action active
with meal down $2 and bean oil up 60 points. The trend is sideways waiting for
some fresh news after the limit-down day March 16. South American origin
soybeans should continue to be competitive with U.S. exports forward in 2026.
Little change will be expected next month from the current crop estimates. The
weekly export sales report is expected to be in the 300,000 to 500,000 mt
range. Most of the trade expects sideways action going into the March
Prospective Plantings report next week. The trade is looking for a number
around 85 million acres versus 81.2 million last year. On the May contract,
chart resistance is $11.78 where we find the 20-day moving average with the
50-day moving average chart support at $11.36.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 2 cents lower to 4 cents higher at midday with KC and
Minneapolis firmer, and Chicago lower. Weather for the Plains looks to stay
warm this week with the 7- to 10-day outlooks looking wetter. The need for
moisture in many production areas is now. The market will be wanting to see
that improved moisture as we get into April, or our early crop conditions will
reflect the dryness which should support prices. The weekly export sales are
expected to be between 300,000 to 500,000 mt. On the KC May chart, support is
at the $5.77 recent low, then the $5.67 lower Bollinger Band. Resistance is at
the $5.92 20-day moving average.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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